By Ken Pomeroy
The HearingLife National gets underway Tuesday in Sydney, Nova Scotia. We’ll start with the men, where, despite losing in the semifinals of the P&H Masters, it felt like Team Y. Schwaller validated their status as the pre-event favourites and the top team in the world. A freeze attempt that was heavy by a few inches in the eighth end was perhaps the difference between winning and losing in the semifinals against eventual champions Team Dunstone. Even as the best team in the world, a lot has to go right to win a Slam.
So, Schwaller remains the favourite here (+335), although according to my computer, their chances (22.1%) are a bit lower than in Medicine Hat (where they were 23.7%) due to a slightly tougher field.
The computer likes Team Mouat (19.5%) and Team Hardie (18.9%) as the most serious challengers to Schwaller. Mouat still isn’t particularly liked by the oddsmakers (+736, sixth-best odds in the field) despite making the P&H Masters final after going a clean 4-0 (without shootouts!) in pool play. For what it’s worth, the computer is starting to see a little separation between the Schwaller/Hardie/Mouat group and the rest of the world.
It’s an all-Canadian group chasing the top trio, led by Team Jacobs (10.8%) and Team Dunstone (9.1%). Brad Jacobs has one of the more improbable streaks in Slam history, having now played 25 Slams in a row without a title. Oddsmakers also like Jacobs (+512) more than Dunstone (+636) despite the latter’s much more recent title.
Also looking to end long title droughts are Brendan Bottcher (3.8%) and John Epping (2.4%), who take us into longshot territory. The chances for both teams have slipped since the P&H Masters, as both ended up losing in the quarterfinals in that event.
The next tier of teams includes Team Eriksson (2.4%), Team Hösli (2.4%), Team Spiller (2.2%), and Team Casper (1.7%). The oddsmakers are once again much higher than the computer on Team Hösli (+499, fourth-best odds in the field). Hösli was excellent at the P&H Masters, going 4-0 in pool play (including a shootout win over Y. Schwaller) and making a second consecutive semifinal appearance in a Slam.
The remainder of the field includes Team Shuster (0.7%), Team Waddell (0.6%), Team McDonald (0.4%), and Team Yamaguchi (0.1%). John Shuster has an entirely new team, but their results this season suggest they’re not much different from his old team in terms of skill. They’re just 25th in the World Curling Team Rankings, but up to 14th at doubletakeout.com.
The women’s field features an incredible amount of parity. Whereas seven men’s teams have at least a 1-in-40 chance of victory, 11 women’s teams can claim this. The results of the first two Slams reflect this as well: Eight different teams have appeared in the semifinals.
The field is about as stacked as it can be, as 14 of the top 16 teams in the doubletakeout.com power ratings are in the field. The computer still likes Team Homan (26.5%) as the favourite, while the oddsmakers are much more pessimistic (+1083). Homan’s rating is gradually suffering as their performance indicates being merely one of the best teams in the world instead of the best team. But part of the issue is that there hasn’t been a dominant team rising through the ratings, either.
Team Wranå might be viewed as the team with the most momentum, having won the European Championships and then immediately capturing the P&H Masters despite the jet lag. Though they did lose two games in pool play (mind you, both in shootouts).
The second-hottest team in the world could be Team Sturmay, who leads all teams with 10 wins against the doubletakeout.com top 10 this season, including two over Homan in the P&H Masters. But Team Sturmay is coming from pretty far back in the ratings and hasn’t quite caught the top teams yet.
The thing about figuring out the best team is that it’s probably going to be a fleeting thing this season. Heading into the season, you might have said Team X. Schwaller was the hottest team, being the reigning world champions and all. But then Team Pätz won their first three events, which included three wins over Schwaller. And Pätz has been fine since then, bowing out of each of the first two Slams in the quarterfinals. But that’s not really “hottest team” material from a rink that made every Slam final last season when Silvana Tirinzoni was skipping and throwing third.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the chances for each team this week:
The “OK, I’ll admit they’re probably as good as Homan right now” tier: Team Hasselborg (10.7%), Team Gim (10.0%), Team Pätz (8.9%), Team Einarson (8.2%), Team X. Schwaller (7.8%). Yes, this is an enormous group of teams. But truthfully, there is basically nothing separating these teams right now. Any matchups between them are basically coin flips, with the advantage determined by who starts with the hammer.
I doubt many people consider Hasselborg the best team in the group, and the reigning Olympic gold medallists are somehow underappreciated. For example, oddsmakers are lukewarm on them (+939, seventh-best odds). But across nine games in the first two Grand Slam events, they’ve given up just three steals. That’s elite play with the hammer. They’ve just given up a big end here and there without the hammer, and that has prevented them from having more success.
The next group: Team Sturmay (3.1%), Team Fujisawa (2.7%), Team Nihira (2.6%), Team Ha (2.2%). Team Sturmay feels like the women’s equivalent of Team Hösli. Young, rising team, without the longer-term track record to give the computer as much confidence as the oddsmakers. But the betting line is more optimistic (+1016) about their chances than the computer is.
The near-rookies: Team Park (1.5%), Team Black (1.1%), Team Kobayashi (0.9%). Each of these skips have played in at least one Slam, although combined they have just one playoff appearance. Oddsmakers hold out quite a bit more hope than my computer for Team Black (+2123), though.
The rookie: Team O’Hara (0.3%). Team O’Hara makes their Slam debut by virtue of beating Team Fujisawa to win the St. Paul Cashspiel. That’s been their only game against a top-10 team so far this season, so this will be a step up in competition. Against such a top-heavy field, they have a 17% chance of shocking the world and making the playoffs.
That’s the lowdown on the HearingLife National. We’ve had eight different teams make finals appearances in the first two Slams this season. Maybe we’ll finally see the first returning finalist this week in Sydney.
