By Ken Pomeroy
The GSOC P&H Masters starts on Tuesday in Medicine Hat, and we’re on the case with a look at the chances of each team winning the title.
Using my team ratings at doubletakeout.com, I’ve run a million simulations of the event to figure out each team’s chance of winning. In doing this, one quickly learns that the odds are against any individual team. So if you successfully pick the winner on either side of the event, give yourself a trophy because the odds are definitely against you.
We’re going to look at each team’s chance of winning and compare it to what the oddsmakers are saying where there are meaningful differences.
Let’s examine the women’s side first because in one important way, it’s more instructive to explain the ratings methodology. Our ratings use a two-year sample to calculate a team’s ability (though the algorithm gives more recent events more weight). That’s a long time, but it’s appropriate in a sport where ability is more “sticky” than it is in other sports. Think about golf, where a great player can lose their feel and go into a months- or even years-long slump. Curlers go through slumps, too, but it’s not the same roller-coaster as we see in most sports.
This especially applies to Team Homan right now. Our ratings consider them the clear favourite to win (27.6 per cent) based on their long-term dominance, though oddsmakers feel otherwise, giving them odds at +482 that imply a 13.1 per cent chance of winning.
If this were an Olympic year, I’d feel pretty strongly the ratings were more correct. But you might imagine Team Homan is not as driven to dominate the sport right now in the way they were 12 months ago. Their lack of an active schedule tells you as much, with their only previous appearance this season being in the GSOC Co-op Invitational. They failed to advance to the quarterfinals there, ending a streak of 14 consecutive playoff appearances in GSOC events. Homan won seven of those 14 events, so in that context a 28 per cent chance of winning seems conservative.
The challengers: Team Pätz (12.0 per cent), Team X. Schwaller (11.9 per cent), Team Hasselborg (11.5 per cent), and Team Gim (10.8 per cent).
These four are pretty evenly matched in the race to take over the honours of being the world’s best team this season (if you believe Homan is giving that up).
Other serious contenders: Team Einarson (8.7 per cent) and Team Wranå (6.3 per cent).
I’m guessing many would also put Team Einarson in the “best team” discussion, given that they’re coming off a win at the GSOC Co-op Invitational, ending a nine-event dry spell at the Slams. They’re the oddsmakers’ favourite at +425, giving them an implied win percentage of 14.6 per cent. So there’s clearly some feeling that Team Einarson has a case for being the best team at this event. But it’s worth stressing that being the “favourite” still means you have an overwhelming chance of not winning. Such is life at GSOC events.
The hopefuls: Team Fujisawa (2.4 per cent), Team Sturmay (2.0 per cent) and Team Nihira (2.0 per cent).
Selena Sturmay has made three GSOC appearances and missed the playoffs in all three. The simulations give her a 35 per cent chance of changing that. The team has won three of the six events they’ve entered this season, and gone an impressive 7-2 against the doubletakeout.com top 10. Their chances would be higher, but the team faces the toughest schedule in the field in pool play, having to go against Homan, Gim, Hasselborg and Park.
The longshots: Team Kitazawa (1.5 per cent), Team Kobayashi (1.5 per cent) and Team Park (1.0 per cent).
This is a good time to mention that the chance of winning is not the same thing as the chance of success. For instance, Team Kitazawa has a 37 per cent chance of making the playoffs, which would be a big deal for a team that hasn’t advanced that far in their six previous Slams.
The rest: Team Reese-Hansen (0.4 per cent), Team Gray-Withers (0.3 per cent), and Team Lloyd (0.05 per cent).
Team Reese-Hansen is the only one in this group with experience in a GSOC Tier 1 event, and that was in this season’s GSOC Co-op Invitational. They didn’t make the playoffs, but they had to go through a gauntlet, playing Hasselborg, Schwaller, Pätz and Kim. They went 1-3, though that included two losses in shootouts. Flip the shootout results and they're in the playoffs. So perhaps that explains why oddsmakers are higher on their chances (+3000) than my simulations of winning in Medicine Hat.
On the men’s side, the ratings conform to the oddsmakers a little better. Team Y. Schwaller is the top-ranked team in both the World Curling Team Rankings and the doubletakeout.com rankings. They are the oddsmakers' favourite at +292, and they top the simulations with a 23.7 per cent chance of winning, which includes an overwhelming 95 per cent chance of making the playoffs.
The challengers: Team Hardie (18.4 per cent), Team Mouat (15.8 per cent) and Team Jacobs (14.1 per cent).
Grant Hardie’s move to skip Ross Whyte’s team has worked out well so far. Fun fact: They’re 11-0 this season when they start the game with the hammer. Never has the pre-game last stone draw been so important. Jacobs and Mouat have played a lighter schedule than most teams and the oddsmakers are lower on the two Olympic finalists (at +571 and +684, respectively) than the simulations, which as with Team Homan, take a longer view of these teams’ abilities.
Other serious contenders: Team Dunstone (9.3 per cent), Team Epping (5.3 per cent) and Team Bottcher (4.3 per cent).
These are the three most likely teams to supplant Team Jacobs as Best Men’s Team in Canada, however you want to define that. Breaking through here would stake a strong claim to that distinction.
The hopefuls: Team Hösli (2.7 per cent) and Team Casper (2.4 per cent).
The biggest difference between the oddsmakers and my simulation is with Team Hösli, where the oddsmakers offer them at +478, giving them an implied 13.3 per cent chance to win. The up-and-coming Swiss team made the playoffs at the Co-op Invitational, ending a streak of 10 GSOC events where they failed to advance.
The longshots: Team Spiller (1.7 per cent), Team Waddell (0.9 per cent), and Team Koe (0.5 per cent).
The oddsmakers are quite a bit higher on Team Koe at +3000, perhaps factoring in some home-province vibes, which my simulations ignore.
The rest: Team Yamaguchi (0.4 per cent), Team McDonald (0.2 per cent), Team Van Amsterdam (0.1 per cent) and Team Hlushak (0.006 per cent).
Hlushak is here through their win at the Saville U25 Challenge, and their chances of winning are remote. But the computer says they have a very realistic 53 per cent chance to win at least one game, which I have to think would make their season.
It’s important to remember that the probabilities given here are based on ratings that look purely at performance. They don’t consider emotional or physical factors, or whether teams have had recent lineup changes. Nonetheless, this exercise provides a decent lay of the land for what to expect in this event.
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